Renewable Energy After COP21: Nine issues for climate leaders to think about on the journey home

COP21 in Paris is over. Now it’s back to the hard work of fighting for, and implementing, the energy transition.

We all know that the transition away from fossil fuels is key to maintaining a livable planet. Several organizations have formulated proposals for transitioning to 100 percent renewable energy; some of those proposals focus on the national level, some the state level, while a few look at the global challenge. David Fridley (staff scientist of the energy analysis program at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory) and I have been working for the past few months to analyze and assess many of those proposals, and to dig deeper into energy transition issues—particularly how our use of energy will need to adapt in a ~100 percent renewable future. We have a book in the works, titled Our Renewable Future, that examines the adjustments society will have to make in the transition to new energy sources. We started this project with some general understanding of the likely constraints and opportunities in this transition; nevertheless, researching and writing Our Renewable Future has been a journey of discovery. Along the way, we identified not only technical issues requiring more attention, but also important implications for advocacy and policy. What follows is a short summary—tailored mostly to the United States—of what we’ve learned, along with some recommendations.

1. We really need a plan; no, lots of them

Germany has arguably accomplished more toward the transition than any other nation largely because it has a plan—the Energiewende. This plan targets a 60 percent reduction in all fossil fuel use (not just in the electricity sector) by 2050, achieving a 50 percent cut in overall energy use through efficiency in power generation (fossil fueled power plants entail huge losses), buildings, and transport. It’s not a perfect plan, in that it really should aim higher than 60 percent. But it’s better than nothing, and the effort is off to a good start. Although the United States has a stated goal of generating 20 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, it does not have an equivalent official plan. Without it, we are at a significant disadvantage.

What would a plan do? It would identify the low-hanging fruit, show how resources need to be allocated, and identify needed policies. We would of course need to revise the plan frequently as we gained practical experience (as Germany is doing).

What follows are some components of a possible plan, based on work already done by many researchers in the United States and elsewhere; far more detail (with timelines, cost schedules, and policies) would be required for a fleshed-out version. It groups tasks into levels of difficulty; work would need to commence right away on tasks at all levels of difficulty, but for planning purposes it’s useful to know what can be achieved relatively quickly and cheaply, and what will take long, expensive, sustained effort.

Level One: The “easy” stuff

Nearly everyone agrees that the easiest way to kick-start the transition would be to replace coal with solar and wind power for electricity generation. That would require building lots of panels and turbines while regulating coal out of existence. Distributed generation and storage (rooftop solar panels with home- or business-scale battery packs) will help. Replacing natural gas will be harder, because gas-fired “peaking” plants are often used to buffer the intermittency of industrial-scale wind and solar inputs to the grid (see Level Two). More

 

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No longer National Security: It is now Planetary Security

George Monbiot superbly sums up the talks, saying: “By comparison to what it could have been, it’s a miracle. By comparison to what it should have been, it’s a disaster.”

The Path From Paris

He writes that: “A maximum of 1.5C, now an aspirational and unlikely target, was eminently achievable when the first UN climate change conference took place in Berlin in 1995. Two decades of procrastination, caused by lobbying – overt, covert and often downright sinister – by the fossil fuel lobby, coupled with the reluctance of governments to explain to their electorates that short-term thinking has long-term costs, ensure that the window of opportunity is now three-quarters shut. The talks in Paris are the best there have ever been. And that is a terrible indictment.””

Here is 350’s Bill McKibben, following up on the Avaaz positive clarion call to arms with a powerful article in today’s Guardian titled ‘Climate deal: the pistol has fired, so why aren’t we running?’

“With the climate talks in Paris now over, the world has set itself a serious goal: limit temperature rise to 1.5C. Or failing that, 2C. Hitting those targets is absolutely necessary: even the one-degree rise that we’ve already seen is wreaking havoc on everything from ice caps to ocean chemistry. But meeting it won’t be easy, given that we’re currently on track for between 4C and 5C. Our only hope is to decisively pick up the pace . . . the only important question, is: how fast . . .

“You’ve got to stop fracking right away (in fact, that may be the greatest imperative of all, since methane gas does its climate damage so fast). You have to start installing solar panels and windmills at a breakneck pace – and all over the world. The huge subsidies doled out to fossil fuel have to end yesterday, and the huge subsidies to renewable energy had better begin tomorrow. You have to raise the price of carbon steeply and quickly, so everyone gets a clear signal to get off of it . . .

“The world’s fossil fuel companies still have five times the carbon we can burn and have any hope of meeting even the 2C target – and they’re still determined to burn it. The Koch Brothers will spend $900m on this year’s American elections. As we know from the ongoing Exxon scandal, there’s every reason to think that this industry will lie at every turn in an effort to hold on to their power –

What this boils down to is not an issue of National Security, but of Global Security, of Planetary Security. The huge subsidies doled out to fossil fuel companies must be clawed back and put towards the Clean Energy Agenda. This is particularly an issue given what we know from the ongoing Exxon scandal, there’s every reason to think that this industry will lie at every turn unless made to pay for their endangerment of humanity.

We have to raise the price of carbon steeply and quickly and use this income to mitigate and sequester carbon in the atmosphere.

Kevin Anderson concludes that we have to make: “Fundamental changes to the political and economic framing of contemporary society. This is a mitigation challenge far beyond anything discussed in Paris – yet without it our well-intended aspirations will all too soon wither and die on the vine. We owe our children, our planet and ourselves more than that. So let Paris be the catalyst for a new paradigm – one in which we deliver a sustainable, equitable and prosperous future for all.”

We must remember that the Montreal Treaty did work. Kofi Annan, Former Secretary General of the United Nations stated "Perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date has been the Montreal Protocol" Remember; "It always seems impossible until it's done" Nelson Mandela. More

 

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Bahamas, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Submit INDCs

18 November 2015: The UNFCCC Secretariat has reported that the Bahamas, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have formally submitted their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), bringing the total number of Parties that have made their submissions to 168.

The submission from the Bahamas covers the energy and forestry sectors; that from Saint Lucia covers energy, electricity generation and transport; and Saint Vincent's INDC focuses on energy (including domestic transport), industrial processes and product use, agriculture, land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and waste.

Noting that fossil fuels are primarily consumed in the transport and electricity sectors of the country, the mitigation contribution from the Bahamas is based on the country's National Energy Policy, which sets a target of reaching 30% renewables in the energy mix by 2030. A 10% Residential Energy Self Generation Programme will also be implemented, which focuses on efficiency improvement and energy diversification. The INDC outlines a number of energy efficiency measures planned for the transport sector, such as efficient traffic management, and states that the construction industry will be subject to energy efficiency standards as laid out in a building code. The INDC also addresses adaptation options in the agriculture, tourism, health, financial and insurance, coastal and marine resources/fisheries, energy, forestry, human settlement, transportation and water resources sectors.

Saint Lucia's INDC contains conditional targets of reducing economy-wide emissions by 16% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2025 and reaching a 23% reduction compared to BAU by 2030. Among the proposed interventions to reach these targets are: energy-efficient buildings; energy-efficient appliances; water distribution and network efficiency; an increase in renewable sources of power in the electricity generation mix; improvements to grid distribution and transmission efficiency; efficient vehicles; and expanded and improved public transit. The costs, as estimated in the INDC, of reaching the 2030 mitigation targets are approximately US$218 million. On adaptation, the Party notes the recently approved Saint Lucia Climate Change Adaptation Policy (CCAP) (2015).

In the INDC submitted by Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the Party communicates its intention to achieve an unconditional, economy-wide reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 22% compared to its BAU scenario by 2025. The INDC explains that the energy sector is the focus of its mitigation activity, with plans to build a geothermal power plant by 2018 and to achieve a 15% reduction in national electricity consumption compared to a BAU scenario by 2025 through, inter alia, street light retrofitting and energy labeling for appliances. The submission also outlines mitigation measures for the transport and LULUCF sectors. On adaptation, the contribution includes examples of Saint Vincent's efforts to adapt to climate change, such as the national climate change adaptation programmes.

All Parties to the UNFCCC are expected to submit INDCs in advance of the Paris Climate Change Conference, which will take place from 30 November - 11 December 2015. At the Conference, Parties are anticipated to agree on a global climate change agreement to take effect in 2020. More

[UNFCCC Press Release, Bahamas] [Bahamas' INDC] [UNFCCC Press Release, Saint Lucia] [Saint Lucia's INDC] [UNFCCC Press Release, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines] [Saint Vincent and the Grenadines's INDC] [UNFCCC INDC Portal]

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18 November 2015: The UNFCCC Secretariat has reported that the Bahamas, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have formally submitted their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), bringing the total number of Parties that have made their submissions to 168. The submission from the Bahamas covers the energy and forestry sectors; that from Saint Lucia covers energy, electricity generation and transport; and Saint Vincent's INDC focuses on energy (including domestic transport), industrial processes and product use, agriculture, land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and waste.

Noting that fossil fuels are primarily consumed in the transport and electricity sectors of the country, the mitigation contribution from the Bahamas is based on the country's National Energy Policy, which sets a target of reaching 30% renewables in the energy mix by 2030. A 10% Residential Energy Self Generation Programme will also be implemented, which focuses on efficiency improvement and energy diversification. The INDC outlines a number of energy efficiency measures planned for the transport sector, such as efficient traffic management, and states that the construction industry will be subject to energy efficiency standards as laid out in a building code. The INDC also addresses adaptation options in the agriculture, tourism, health, financial and insurance, coastal and marine resources/fisheries, energy, forestry, human settlement, transportation and water resources sectors.

Saint Lucia's INDC contains conditional targets of reducing economy-wide emissions by 16% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2025 and reaching a 23% reduction compared to BAU by 2030. Among the proposed interventions to reach these targets are: energy-efficient buildings; energy-efficient appliances; water distribution and network efficiency; an increase in renewable sources of power in the electricity generation mix; improvements to grid distribution and transmission efficiency; efficient vehicles; and expanded and improved public transit. The costs, as estimated in the INDC, of reaching the 2030 mitigation targets are approximately US$218 million. On adaptation, the Party notes the recently approved Saint Lucia Climate Change Adaptation Policy (CCAP) (2015).

In the INDC submitted by Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the Party communicates its intention to achieve an unconditional, economy-wide reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 22% compared to its BAU scenario by 2025. The INDC explains that the energy sector is the focus of its mitigation activity, with plans to build a geothermal power plant by 2018 and to achieve a 15% reduction in national electricity consumption compared to a BAU scenario by 2025 through, inter alia, street light retrofitting and energy labeling for appliances. The submission also outlines mitigation measures for the transport and LULUCF sectors. On adaptation, the contribution includes examples of Saint Vincent's efforts to adapt to climate change, such as the national climate change adaptation programmes.

All Parties to the UNFCCC are expected to submit INDCs in advance of the Paris Climate Change Conference, which will take place from 30 November - 11 December 2015. At the Conference, Parties are anticipated to agree on a global climate change agreement to take effect in 2020. [UNFCCC Press Release, Bahamas] [Bahamas' INDC] [UNFCCC Press Release, Saint Lucia] [Saint Lucia's INDC] [UNFCCC Press Release, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines] [Saint Vincent and the Grenadines's INDC] [UNFCCC INDC Portal]

read more: http://sids-l.iisd.org/news/bahamas-saint-lucia-saint-vincent-and-the-grenadines-submit-indcs/

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Global carbon dioxide levels break 400ppm milestone

Record carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere were reported worldwide in March, in what scientists said marked a significant milestone for global warming.

Figures released by the US science agency Noaa on Wednesday show that for the first time since records began, the parts per million (ppm) of CO2 in the atmosphere were over 400 globally for a month.

The measure is the key indicator of the amount of planet-warming gases man is putting into the atmosphere at record rates, and the current concentrations are unprecedented in millions of years.

The new global record follows the breaking of the 400ppm CO2 threshold in some local areas in 2012 and 2013, and comes nearly three decades after what is considered the ‘safe’ level of 350ppm was passed.

“Reaching 400ppm as a global average is a significant milestone,” said Pieter Tans, lead scientist on Noaa’s greenhouse gas network.

“This marks the fact that humans burning fossil fuels have caused global carbon dioxide concentrations to rise more than 120ppm since pre-industrial times,” added Tans. “Half of that rise has occurred since 1980.”

World leaders are due to meet in Paris for a UN climate summit later this year in an attempt to reach agreement on cutting countries’ carbon emissions to avoid dangerous global warming.

Dr Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading told the Guardian: “This event is a milestone on a road to unprecedented climate change for the human race. The last time the Earth had this much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was more than a million years ago, when modern humans hadn’t even evolved yet.

“Reaching 400ppm doesn’t mean much in itself, but the steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases should serve as a stark reminder of the task facing politicians as they sit down in Paris later this year.”

Greenhouse gas emissions from power plants stalled for the first time last year without the influence of a strict economic recession, according to the International Energy Agency, an influential thinktank.

Nick Nuttall, a spokesman for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which oversees the international climate negotiations, said: “These numbers underline the urgency of nations delivering a decisive new universal agreement in Paris in December – one that marks a serious and significant departure from the past.

“The agreement and the decisions surrounding it needs to be a long term development plan providing the policies, pathways and finance for triggering a peaking of global emissions in 10 years’ time followed by a deep, decarbonisation of the global economy by the second half of the century.”

But even if manmade emissions were dramatically cut much deeper than most countries are planning, the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere would only stabilise, not fall, scientists said.

James Butler, director of Noaa’s global monitoring division, said: “Elimination of about 80% of fossil fuel emissions would essentially stop the rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but concentrations of carbon dioxide would not start decreasing until even further reductions are made and then it would only do so slowly.”

Concentrations of CO2 were at 400.83ppm in March compared to 398.10ppm in March 2014, the preliminary Noaa data showed. They are are expected to stay above 400pm during May, when levels peak because of CO2 being taken up by plants growing in the northern hemisphere.

Noaa used air samples taken from 40 sites worldwide, and analysed them at its centre in Boulder, Colorado. The agency added that the average growth rate in concentrations was 2.25ppm per year from 2012-2014, the highest ever recorded for three consecutive years. More

 

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