GLISPA's The Year of Leadership, Commitment & Action by Ambassador Ronny Jumeau

Dear GLISPA friends,

It gives me great pleasure to announce that H.E. Dr. The Right Honorable Keith Mitchell, Prime Minister Grenada, has accepted the invitation from my President, H.E. James Michel of the Republic of Seychelles, and H.E. Tommy Remengesau Jr., President of the Republic of Palau, to be a Co-Chair of the Global Island Partnership (GLISPA).

Ambassador Ronald Jumeau

In early 2013, Prime Minister Mitchell co-hosted the Caribbean Summit of Political and Business Leaders alongside The Right Honorable Orlando Smith, Premier of the British Virgin Islands, and Sir Richard Branson, Founder of the Virgin Group. This Summit brought visionary political leaders of Caribbean governments and territories together with responsible business leaders to take action to protect at least 20% of the Caribbean’s marine and coastal environment by 2020 (“20 by 20”).

Prime Minister Mitchell was sworn in as PM for the fourth time in February 2013, having held the position from 1995 to 2008. In 2006, at the same event that launched GLISPA, Grenada, under the decisive leadership of Prime Minister Mitchell, committed to conserve 25% of its marine and 25% of its terrestrial areas by 2020[i]. This commitment then inspired the Caribbean Challenge Initiative which has since resulted in “20 by 20” commitments from the Bahamas, the British Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. I continue to be inspired by the leadership of Prime Minister Mitchell as he works with the leaders of the Caribbean to achieve this goal.

We also welcome H.E. Dr. Denis Antoine, Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations for Grenada as the representative of Prime Minister Mitchell on the GLISPA Steering Committee. The Steering Committee will also continue to benefit from the guidance of Dr. Spencer Thomas, Grenada’s Ambassador and Special Envoy for Multilateral Environmental Agreements who has been an integral participant of this Committee since the Partnership was launched. As Chair of the Steering Committee I can affirm that the full Committee will look forward to the ongoing contributions and strategic direction from Grenada as we move forward into an exciting year for islands globally.

As a result of the GLISPA Steering Committee meeting held in Washington D.C. last week, I am honored to also announce that H.E. Dr. Caleb Otto, Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations for the Republic of Palau, has, as representative of the President of Palau to the Steering Committee, also accepted the new role of Vice-Chair of GLISPA Steering Committee. Ambassador Otto and I will represent the GLISPA Steering Committee at relevant events to ensure our vision for island conservation and sustainable livelihoods is achieved.

This year, the International Year of Small Island Developing States, presents a unique opportunity to celebrate our rich cultures, diversity and heritage of islands. The 22 May International Day of Biological Diversity: Island Biodiversity provides a unique opportunity to showcase the bright spots emerging from islands globally that can be scaled and replicated to achieve global conservation and sustainable development targets. 2014 is a year to recognize our own successes as a Global Island Partnership that has already catalyzed more than $130 million for island conservation and sustainable livelihoods. Let us continue to work together to inspire new leadership from island countries and countries with islands and to catalyze significant new commitments to building resilient island communities towards the Third International Meeting of Small Island Developing States (UNSIDS) in Samoa in September.

The time for action is now:

· Demonstrate your leadership by making, promoting or supporting to implement visionary high-level island commitments

· Invest in What Works: invest in scaling and replicating island bright spots

· Celebrate the International Day of Biological Diversity: Island Biodiversity, 22 May 2014

· Get involved and support the Global Island Partnership http://www.globalgiving.org/projects/connecting-island-leaders-glispa/

www.glispa.org

©

Weather in Singapore driest since 1869

The prolonged dry weather affecting Singapore since mid-January has set a new record for the driest month since 1869, according to the National Environment Agency (NEA).

At the Changi climate station, the rainfall total recorded last month was 0.2mm, breaking the previous record of 6.3mm in February 2010.

Apart from being the driest month ever, last month is the most windy month in the last 30 years.

At the Changi climate station, the average daily wind speed of 13.3 kilometre per hour (kph) recorded last month exceeds the previous high of 12.5kph in January 1985.

The prolonged dry conditions have also set a new record for the lowest average daily relative humidity of 74.5%.

The previous record low for February and any month of the year was 76.9% (February 1968) and 74.6% (June 2013).

The last day of significant rainfall was on February 16 when between 0.2mm and 29m was recorded in various parts of the island.

Since then, there has been little or no rainfall, with Singapore entering another period of dry spell on February 17.

The dry weather affecting Singapore and the surrounding region is expected to persist in the first half of this month.

With the expected onset of the inter-monsoon in the second half of this month, the winds in the region will turn light and variable in direction.

Increased rainfall can be expected in the later part of the month.

With the dry weather expected to continue, the National Water Agency has started a public campaign to get everyone to conserve water. – Bernama, March 4, 2014. More

 

©

ENERGY DARWINISM The Evolution of the Energy Industry

The global energy industry has been transformed in the last five years in ways and to an extent that few would have thought credible.

Of the $9.7 trillion of global investment in Power Generation, 71% will be in renewables or clean technologies.

The emergence of shale gas has transformed the U.S. energy market while Germany has seen some gas-fired power stations running for less than 10 days a year due to the impact of solar leading utility owners to issue profit warnings. Developed markets now spend more on renewable capital expenditures than they do on conventional generation, largely due to uncertainty over commodity pricing and likely future utilisation rates, while the legacy of Fukushima has seen Japan burning gas at $16-17/mmbtu while the U.S. basks in $3 shale, driving the introduction of the world’s most attractive solar subsidy scheme and catapulting Japan to be the world’s second largest solar market.

Conversely, the intermittency of renewables has led to the greater demand for the flexibility of gas-fired power plants in some markets. So, fuel and technology substitution is happening – and not just in developed markets. The shift in emerging markets is less marked, but is nonetheless there. The voracious appetite for power displayed by emerging markets will engender a higher level of new conventional generation (in particular coal), though gas is gradually taking demand from coal and renewables are forecast to represent 10% of new installed power generation capacity in China over the next two years. Despite these shifts, the analysis of individual fuel and technology cost curves – a key determinant in setting the market price – has continued largely on a standalone basis, with limited emphasis on the risks of substitution.

Accordingly, in this report we have combined the work of our alternative energy oil & gas, mining (coal), utility and commodity research teams to create an integrated energy cost curve, which allows us to assess the impact and risks of this substitutional change across all fuel and technology types. Importantly, this integrated curve looks at incremental energy demand and supply, meaning relatively small changes in the mix can have a material impact on the returns of projects, particularly those at the upper end of the cost curve. More

 

©

Indonesia risks losing up to 1,500 islands by 2050

BY 2050, up to 1,500 Indonesian islands will be wiped off the map.

Kuta beach near Denpasar on Indonesia's tourist island of Bali

By 2030, Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, which serves the capital and is about 5km from the seafront, will be under water.

Capital Jakarta, with 40 per cent of its land below sea level and sinking, will see its northern districts transformed into lakes then.

These bleak projections reflect scientific predictions of the effects of climate change on Indonesia, if nothing more is done.

The Indonesian archipelago has some 17,000 islands, with about 6,000 permanently inhabited.

"This archipelago's biggest threat is rising sea levels, where 42 million people living 3km from the coast are vulnerable if estimated sea level rise reaches up to 90cm by the end of the century," said Mr Ancha Srinivasan, principal climate change specialist with the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

He joins the increasing number of scientists sounding the alarm bells on the harmful effects of climate change, which they say will hit Indonesia hard, given its 80,000km coastline that makes it the second-longest in the world, and the vastness of a country where the poor are also the most impacted and unprepared.

United States Secretary of State John Kerry gave this global attention when, in his climate change speech in Jakarta recently, he warned that half of the capital could be submerged if sea levels rose by half a metre, and changing acidity meant that fish supply dwindled.

Later in the week, the British foreign secretary's special representative on climate change, Sir David King, was invited to Jakarta and Bandung to share his country's experience in going green and managing one of Britain's worst floods in decades.

Both he and Mr Kerry's presence days apart was coincidental, but it was an indication of the importance they placed in Indonesia as a developing country ranked as one of the most vulnerable in South-east Asia to effects of climate change.

Large areas of Indonesia are considered at high or extreme risk, noted British risk analysis and mapping firm Maplecroft in its latest Climate Change Vulnerability Index.

"High poverty and population density levels, along with the concentration of economic assets in areas exposed to extreme events associated with climate change, exacerbate risks in Indonesia," the report said.

"When we look around the world, we are seeing serious extreme events increasing in frequency - exactly what we expect from climate change," Sir David told The Straits Times.

He pointed out that typhoon Haiyan was the most intense to hit land, Melbourne's 44 deg C days last month hit its most sizzling levels since 1939, and hurricane Sandy's landfall in New York was an unexpected superstorm to hit that city.

"Extreme weather events that used to happen once every 100 years will now be happening more frequently" unless climate change is brought under control, he said.

Rising sea levels have seen Indonesia lose 24 small islands off Aceh, North Sumatra, Papua and Riau between 2005 and 2007, according to a Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries report.

Floods during the rainy season in Indonesia have become heavier than usual, pinned down to warming temperatures that bring more moisture into the air.

In South Sulawesi, fishermen are no longer able to predict wind directions and seasons, causing uncertain fish supply.

The acidity level change of 0.3 on the pH scale has driven fish to head out further to the ocean.

"It may be a small change, but had a significant impact on marine ecosystems and fish spawning habits," said ADB's Mr Ancha.

"Climate change is the biggest single challenge to the future of our civilisation, and your country and my country are all at risk," said Sir David, echoing the grim message Mr Kerry had delivered days earlier.

 

Posted with Blogsy

Richard Branson Launches A Green Energy Plan For The Caribbean

In 1979, when Richard Branson bought the 74-acre Necker Island in the British Virgin Islands, he paid less than $300,000. It was untouched, undeveloped, inhabited only by birds and jungle critters. Back then, no one worried a wit about carbon emissions, ocean acidification, rising sea levels. To bring electricity to his island retreat Branson, like virtually everyone else on the small islands of the Caribbean, installed diesel generators.

Necker Island

As far as fuels go, diesel is hard to beat. It’s easy to transport and contains a lot of energy in a small volume. It’s already ubiquitous in the islands as fuel for boats. And it’s never been cleaner, with U.S. government standards limiting sulfur content to no more than 15 parts per million. For decades, diesel was simply the way to go.

But Branson wants to change that. Because running on diesel means that the cost of electricity on Caribbean islands averages about 50 cents per kwh, about five times what it is on the mainland United States.

In early February, Branson leveraged his star power to convene a three-day meeting of dignitaries from 13 Caribbean nations including the Virgin Island, St. Kitts & Nevis, Turks & Caicos and the Cayman Islands. While enjoying both Necker Island and Branson’s neighboring Moskito Island, they discussed the costs of powering their island homes and the economics of switching over to clean, green renewable energy.

Working with The Carbon War Room (an anti-carbon group he co-founded) as well as the energy experts at the Rocky Mountain Institute, Branson is promoting something called the 10 Island Renewable Challenge. The idea is to get the island nations of the Caribbean to switch away from diesel. The argument is simple: going carbon-free won’t just help keep the air clean and reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — it will save lots of money too.

To help the cause, Carbon War Room and RMI have worked with the World Bank and the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation to earmark $300 million for new renewable energy projects in the islands.

Necker Island will be the first to make that shift. Within three years Branson aims to be using solar and wind, with battery backup, to provide for 80% of Necker’s energy needs, with a long-term goal of 100%. Branson has contracted with NRG EnergyNRG Energy to build Necker’s renewable micro-grid.

“What we hope to do is use Necker as a test island to show how it can be done,” said Branson in a statement. “The only way we’re going to win this war is by creative entrepreneurship.”

Among the world’s CEOs and billionaires, Branson has real environmentalist cred. Sure the founder of Virgin Records, Virgin Airways, and now Virgin Galactic is responsible for millions of tons of carbon emissions over the years. But he’s been trying to make up for it. As early as 2008 his airline flew a Boeing Boeing 747 from London to Amsterdam on a low-carbon fuel made of babassu oil and coconut oil. He’s also a backer of the new solar-powered airplane SolarImpulse.

Jon Creyts, a managing director at the Rocky Mountain Institute, was in attendance at the conference, and shared with the group RMI’s research on just how much sense it makes for the islands to shift from diesel. According to Creyts, when you factor in the costs of fuel, transmission and capital investment, the average cost of electricity in the Caribbean ranges from 32 cents to 65 cents per kwh. That’s as much as five times what the average American pays for electricity. Most of that cost is in the diesel; a 1,000 kw diesel generator running at 100% capacity gulps about 70 gallons in an hour. That equates to .07 gallons per kwh. At current diesel prices in the Virgin Islands of $3.50 per gallon that comes out to 25 cents per kwh in diesel.

Compare that with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s figures for the all-in costs of other generation methods. Gas turbines can do about 7 cents per kwh, offshore wind 22 cents, and solar photovoltaic 14 cents.

The increased costs of building in isolated locations might add a couple cents per kwh, but overall it’s hard to argue that the islands should stick with diesel. Even before Richard Branson’s new efforts, Aruba had worked with RMI and Carbon War Room to institute a green energy revolution. In recent years Aruba invested $300 million to build a 20-turbine wind farm rated at 30 mw that meets 20% of the island’s power needs. It replaced its old electric turbines with more efficient models, and is building a solar panel park. Since beginning its efforts in 2006 Aruba has reduced its imports of heavy fuel oil from 3,000 barrels per day to 1,700 barrels, saving some $50 million a year.

The U.S. Virgin Islands had taken tentative steps toward solar, signing long-term deals with solar developers to buy power from three systems with peak capacity of 18 mw. That will meet about 18% of the territory’s peak demand. A 20-year deal with Toshiba Toshiba will cost an average of 17 cents per kwh. The islands also require that all new construction use solar power for hot water heating.

It sounds good, but even on the islands, reality is a challenge. According to a study last year by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, solar developers need an average of 10 acres of land to put up 1 mw of solar panels. That implies that if the U.S. Virgin Islands were to go totally solar and replace its two big oil-burning generators that put out about 100 mw around the clock, they would likely need at least 1,500 acres of land (or roofs) covered in panels, a bunch of wind turbines to provide power at night, plus some sort of ingenious energy storage system smooth out the peaks. That could be doable on St. Croix, which consists of about 53,000 acres and the 1,500-acre Hovensa oil storage terminal on its south side. A 1,100-acre chunk of land adjacent to the terminal is now in process of being cleaned up and redeveloped.

An even better idea for the very long term is for these islands to tap their enormous and endless domestic energy opportunity: geothermal. Most of the islands in the eastern Caribbean were formed by volcanic action. The volcano on Montserrat erupted violently in 1997, killing 19. Because they are located close to the boundaries of two tectonic plates, the islands have plenty of natural volcanic heat that they could tap at relatively shallow depths. Already Iceland Drilling Company, based in the world’s capital of geothermal energy, is reportedly working on exploratory geothermal projects in Dominica and Montserrat. Projects are also being drawn up for Nevis and St. Vincent.

In time each of these islands could be powered by steam turbines running on virtually endless supplies of cheap energy harnessed from the Earth’s own internal furnace.

But solar, wind and geothermal are all expensive. Another part of the challenge, says Creyts, who was a McKinsey consultant before joining RMI, is that most of the Caribbean islands have pretty lackluster credit ratings and not much borrowing capacity. Indeed, Jamaica, St Kitts-Nevis, Grenada, Barbados and Antigua and Barbuda all have public debt loads approaching or surpassing 100% of GDP. That’s why it was so vital to get the World Bank and OPIC on board to help arrange low-cost financing.

There’s no shortage of potential projects for the islands to pursue, with energy-hungry hotels, hospitals and schools offering the lowest-hanging fruit. Naturally, there’s plenty of corporate partners ready to help the islands make the shift. Executives from Philips, Johnson Controls, Sungevity, Vestas and NRG were present at the Necker Island retreat.

There’s some incentive for these island nations to think about moving a little quicker in their renewables plans. Many Caribbean nation’s have joined the PetroCaribe pact created by Venezuela’s late President Hugo Chavez, whereby Venezuela has for years sent them discounted oil. Though Chavez’ successor Nicolas Maduro has continued the oil discounts, there is concern that amid Venezuela’s slow-motion economic collapse the largesse will soon end, forcing the islands to pay more on the world market.

Renewable, carbon-free energy doesn’t yet make economic sense in the most densely inhabited parts of the world that are already well served by reliable energy sources. But islands like these represent a motivated laboratory of energy evolution. In time, the lessons learned in the islands will be ripe for application across the other energy-starved corners of the world. More

 

International Year of SIDS Launched

 

The International Year of SIDS was launched this morning by PM of Samoa, President of General Assembly, UN Secretary General, President of Nauru and USG of UNSIDS Conference. The event was emceed by Ambassador Jumeau of Seychelles. A great start to build momentum towards UNSIDS Conference in August 2014 focused on genuine and durable partnerships.

 

UN Report says small-scale organic farming only way to feed the world.

Transformative changes are needed in our food, agriculture and trade systems in order to increase diversity on farms, reduce our use of fertilizer and other inputs, support small-scale farmers and create strong local food systems. That’s the conclusion of a remarkable new publication from the U.N. Commission on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The report, Trade and Environment Review 2013: Wake Up Before it is Too Late, included contributions from more than 60 experts around the world (including a commentary from IATP). The report includes in-depth sections on the shift toward more sustainable, resilient agriculture; livestock production and climate change; the importance of research and extension; the role of land use; and the role of reforming global trade rules.

The report links global security and escalating conflicts with the urgent need to transform agriculture toward what it calls “ecological intensification.” The report concludes, “This implies a rapid and significant shift from conventional, monoculture-based and high-external-input-dependent industrial production toward mosaics of sustainable, regenerative production systems that also considerably improve the productivity of small-scale farmers.”

The UNCTAD report identified key indicators for the transformation needed in agriculture:

• Increasing soil carbon content and better integration between crop and livestock production, and increased incorporation of agroforestry and wild vegetation
• Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of livestock production
• Reduction of GHGs through sustainable peatland, forest and grassland management
• Optimization of organic and inorganic fertilizer use, including through closed nutrient cycles in agriculture
• Reduction of waste throughout the food chains
• Changing dietary patterns toward climate-friendly food consumption
• Reform of the international trade regime for food and agriculture

IATP’s contribution focused on the effects of trade liberalization on agriculture systems. We argued that trade liberalization both at the WTO and in regional deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) had increased volatility and corporate concentration in agriculture markets, while undermining the development of locally-based, agroecological systems that better support farmers.

The report’s findings are in stark contrast to the accelerated push for new free trade agreements, including the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the U.S.-EU Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which expand a long discredited model of economic development designed primarily to strengthen the hold of multinational corporate and financial firms on the global economy. Neither global climate talks nor other global food security forums reflect the urgency expressed in the UNCTAD report to transform agriculture.

In 2007, another important report out of the multilateral system, the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD), with contributions from experts from over 100 countries (and endorsed by nearly 60 countries), came to very similar conclusions. The IAASTD report concluded that “Business as Usual is Not an Option,” and the shift toward agroecological approaches was urgent and necessary for food security and climate resilience. Unfortunately, business as usual has largely continued. Maybe this new UNCTAD report will provide the tipping point for the policy transformation that must take place “before it’s too late.”

This paradigm applies to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) even more acutely than mainland states as the majority of their food is imported. The other factor that would affect SIDS is a rise on fossil fuel prices, which could double the cost of all imported items overnight, including food prices. Editor

Richard Branson Wants Caribbean Islands to Swap Diesel for Renewables

Dirty diesel is the most common form of electricity generation throughout Caribbean island nations, but that will change if billionaire Richard Branson has anything to do with it.

Branson is using his private island in the British Virgin Islands, Necker Island, as a test bed for a microgrid that will run on renewable generation. The project on Necker, which is supported by NRG Energy, is not just an exercise in bringing renewables to the region at any cost. It aims to make renewables affordable to island economies.

“What we’ve learned in the renewable world is everyone wants to save the world,” David Crane, NRG’s chief executive, told The New York Times. “But very few people want to pay more for energy.” The average price of electricity in the Caribbean is about four times higher than it is in the mainland United States.

The push for clean energy is the core mission of the Ten Island Renewable Challenge led by the Carbon War Room, a nonprofit founded by Branson. The problem for most islands is that the upfront cost of renewable technology and storage is relatively expensive given that most island nations have small populations. Because the projects are relatively small, compared to projects in the US or Europe, it can be difficult to get financing.

At the same time, however, islands across the globe depend on diesel, which makes electricity incredibly expensive compared to regions that rely on other fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas. Hawaii, for example, has the highest electricity rates in the United States, about double the price of the next closest state.

Branson's challenge in the Caribbean already has the support of Aruba, British Virgin Islands, St. Lucia, and Turks and Caicos. Aruba, for example, already has a wind farm and is planning more.

Other islands are looking at solar, wind, LED lighting for municipal applications, waste-to-energy, and geothermal. For years, Barbados has been toying with the idea of using a special breed of sugar cane for co-generation, but has yet to invest in a large-scale project. Late last year, Puerto Rico mandated energy storage to go with wind and solar projects on the island, which could be a model for other islands if it is successful.

On the 74-acre Necker Island, the microgrid will combine wind, solar, and batteries that can support about 80 percent of the island’s energy requirements. On small islands, like Necker, microgrids may seem like a natural solution, but cost remains an issue if they are powered by renewables.

Although the cost of renewables have come down, and might be competitive with expensive diesel power, intermittent renewable energy requires expensive storage and sophisticated controls to balance grid conditions on that small of a scale.

Branson has the will and the deep pockets to invest in such a project, but the results will have to be replicable at a price that non-billionaire utility customers can afford on other islands.

Some of the solutions may be in attractive financing, rather than in proving the technology. In some places, subsidies for diesel make it more affordable and if those are ended, renewables look more attractive. Short-term tax benefits for renewables can also help to get projects off the ground. The Carbon War Room said it would help islands with assistance in attracting project engineers and financiers.

“There’s tens of thousands of islands burning diesel fuel that’s really destroying their economies because it’s so expensive,” Crane told the The New York Times.

Branson is hoping for quick results, and not just on Necker Island. "We're hoping to get a number of islands to sign up to get as carbon-neutral as they can over the next few years," Branson told Phys.org. “Immediately afterwards,” he wrote in a blog post, “we want to head to the Pacific Islands and implement everything we will have learned.” More

 

The Asia Pacific Clean Energy Summit & Expo - Call for Papers'

The Asia Pacific Clean Energy Summit & Expo

Co-located with the Islands Innovation Summit & Showcase/ Pacific Defense Energy Summit & Showcase

September 15-17, 2014

Honolulu Convention Center, Honolulu, HI

http://islandsconnect.com

The event is the preeminent meeting place for international leaders and energy experts at the forefront of the clean energy movement. Securing energy independence and developing a clean energy industry that promotes the vitality of our planet are two reasons why it is critical to reaffirm already established partnerships and build new ones throughout the Asia-Pacific region and the world. The summit will provide a forum for the high-level global networking necessary to advance this emerging clean energy culture.

'Call for Papers' Submission deadlines:

Panel Proposals - Due March 28th

Islands Innovation Challenge & Defense Energy Challenge - Due May 31st

For further information, partnerships, island/community showcase, or group programs, please contact Regina Ramazzini at regina@techconnect.org

5Cs Welcomes DFID Caribbean Evaluation Team

The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre welcomed Caribbean representatives from the United Kingdom Department for International Development (UK-DFID) to its offices yesterday. The team, which is conducting an annual project evaluation, includes Alex Harvey, climate change and disaster risk reduction team leader, and Rosanne Kadir, programme officer.

The UK-DFID is providing up to £4.9 million from the International Climate Fund, between October 2011 and March 2015, to support a programme of priority actions in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change Implementation Plan (IP). This support strengthens the Centre’s ability to support national level adaptation, as well as Caribbean participation in global negotiations. It will also help some of the most vulnerable communities to withstand the impacts of climate change and variability. More

 

Climate change and the world’s coasts

Coastal regions may face massive increases in damages from storm surge flooding over the course of the 21st century.

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, global average storm surge damages could increase from about 10-40 billion USD per year today to up to 100,000 billion USD per year by the end of century, if no adaptation action is taken. The study lead by the Berlin-based think-tank Global Climate Forum (GCF) presents, for the first time, comprehensive global simulation results on future storm surge damages to buildings and infrastructure. Drastic increases in these damages are expected, on one hand, due to rising sea-levels and, on the other hand, due to population and economic growth. Asia and Africa may be particularly hard hit because of their rapidly growing coastal mega-cities, such as Shanghai, Manila or Lagos.

“If we ignore this problem, the consequences will be dramatic,” explained Jochen Hinkel from GCF and the study’s lead author. In 2100, up to 600 million people (around 5 percent of the global population) could be affected by coastal flooding if no adaptation measures are put in place. “Countries need to take action and invest in coastal protection measures, such as building or raising dikes, amongst other options,” urged Hinkel. With such protection measures, the projected damages could be reduced to below 80 billion USD per year during the 21st century. The researchers found that investments level of 10 to 70 billion USD per year could achieve such a reduction.

Prompt action is needed most in Asia and Africa, where today large parts of the population are

already affected by storm surge flooding. Yet even Germany must invest in coastal protection. It is not only dikes that are needed however. Alternative and more flexible coastal protection measures that better fit the natural environmental should also be developed. Examples of such alternatives to dikes are the reintroduction of mangrove forests, the rehabilitation of coastal dunes or artificial oyster banks.

Meeting the challenge of adapting to rising sea-levels will not be easy. “Poor countries and heavily impacted small-island states are not able to make the necessary investments alone. They need international support,” explained Hinkel. Adding to the challenge, international finance mechanisms have thus far proved sluggish in mobilising funds for adapting to climate change, as the debate on adaptation funding at the recent climate conference in Warsaw once again confirmed.

“If we do not reduce greenhouse gases swiftly and substantially, some regions will have to seriously consider relocating significant numbers of people in the longer run,” explained Hinkel. Yet regardless of how much sea-level rise climate change brings, careful long-term regional and urban planning can ensure that development in high-risk flood zones is avoided. This long-term perspective is however a challenge to bring about, as coastal development tends to be dominated by short-term interests of, for example, real-estate and tourism companies, which prefer to build directly at the waterfront. More