Climate change and the world’s coasts

Coastal regions may face massive increases in damages from storm surge flooding over the course of the 21st century.

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, global average storm surge damages could increase from about 10-40 billion USD per year today to up to 100,000 billion USD per year by the end of century, if no adaptation action is taken. The study lead by the Berlin-based think-tank Global Climate Forum (GCF) presents, for the first time, comprehensive global simulation results on future storm surge damages to buildings and infrastructure. Drastic increases in these damages are expected, on one hand, due to rising sea-levels and, on the other hand, due to population and economic growth. Asia and Africa may be particularly hard hit because of their rapidly growing coastal mega-cities, such as Shanghai, Manila or Lagos.

“If we ignore this problem, the consequences will be dramatic,” explained Jochen Hinkel from GCF and the study’s lead author. In 2100, up to 600 million people (around 5 percent of the global population) could be affected by coastal flooding if no adaptation measures are put in place. “Countries need to take action and invest in coastal protection measures, such as building or raising dikes, amongst other options,” urged Hinkel. With such protection measures, the projected damages could be reduced to below 80 billion USD per year during the 21st century. The researchers found that investments level of 10 to 70 billion USD per year could achieve such a reduction.

Prompt action is needed most in Asia and Africa, where today large parts of the population are

already affected by storm surge flooding. Yet even Germany must invest in coastal protection. It is not only dikes that are needed however. Alternative and more flexible coastal protection measures that better fit the natural environmental should also be developed. Examples of such alternatives to dikes are the reintroduction of mangrove forests, the rehabilitation of coastal dunes or artificial oyster banks.

Meeting the challenge of adapting to rising sea-levels will not be easy. “Poor countries and heavily impacted small-island states are not able to make the necessary investments alone. They need international support,” explained Hinkel. Adding to the challenge, international finance mechanisms have thus far proved sluggish in mobilising funds for adapting to climate change, as the debate on adaptation funding at the recent climate conference in Warsaw once again confirmed.

“If we do not reduce greenhouse gases swiftly and substantially, some regions will have to seriously consider relocating significant numbers of people in the longer run,” explained Hinkel. Yet regardless of how much sea-level rise climate change brings, careful long-term regional and urban planning can ensure that development in high-risk flood zones is avoided. This long-term perspective is however a challenge to bring about, as coastal development tends to be dominated by short-term interests of, for example, real-estate and tourism companies, which prefer to build directly at the waterfront. More

 

Seychelles- a determined Island Nation

Dear people of Seychelles, Dear residents of Seychelles, Dear visitors to our country, A new year, a new chapter in our history. A new page that we all have to write together, guided by the experience of the preceding years, motivated by our tenacity to do more and better, inspired by our resilience and the values that unite us as a nation.

A small nation that is young and vulnerable. But we are a nation that is strong because of our patriotism, our solidarity, our resoluteness and courage to face challenges with enthusiasm and open mind. With intelligence and without fear. A small nation that has ambitions. It dares to realize its dreams in spite of the constraints it faces. A small nation that has reached an envious stage in its development and prosperity, always striving for an even better future for its people.

The start of this new year is a fitting occasion to look back at our past and draw the lessons that will enable us to chart our future. It has not always been easy. We encountered difficulties and obstacles. There were times when we made some errors. But we have learned our lessons. All this is behind us. We now have to look at the future.

History tells us that we are a resilient people. A nation forged by the flames of struggle and tenacity. This has made us strong and bold. Always ready to face the unknown. Always ready to take our own destiny and future in our own hands. No one else will do it for us. 2014 is the start of a new future. A future that we all help to build daily, in the spirit of sharing and solidarity. In a spirit of national unity and patriotism. In the spirit of the New Seychelles that unceasingly requires our love, our responsibility and our hard work in order to lead it toward the better horizon.

In all decisions we take, in all we do, the future of our homeland is more important than all else. The future of the New Seychelles comes first.

Small islands conjure up images of paradise on earth. They are small; they are beautiful! But small is also vulnerable. We are vulnerable to a host of threats ranging from climate change, to the plundering of the resources of our Blue Economy, piracy, trans-border organized crime. The challenges are many. But we, the inhabitants of one of the most beautiful small island states, have not allowed these to deter us from fulfilling our vision. It is a vision of a better world -- one of hope, justice, peace and opportunities. It is a vision constructed on our principles. A vision for the New Seychelles. A vision which has propelled us to the forefront of the fight for the cause of small island developing states.

For many years Seychelles has championed the cause of small island states. Our leadership role has long been recognised. And this year, our efforts and vision, along with those of others, have been vindicated. 2014 has been designated by the United Nations as the "International Year of Small Island Developing States".

The theme finds singular resonance with us. That is why we have adopted it as our national theme, while situating it in our own context. International Year of Small Island Developing States: Seychelles – A Determined Island Nation is our theme of the year 2014.

We are a truly determined island state. We are conscious of our weaknesses, our constraints … But we are a resilient small nation. A small nation that has proved its resolve and resilience on countless occasions in the face of vicissitudes. We have faced them, we have overcome them against all odds, and we have emerged stronger and bolder.

The New Seychelles is a reality. It is a modern and progressive edifice that continues to inspire us. We continue to strive for it. The New Seychelles is a small island state that is determined, courageous. Its eyes cast on the future, with plenty of hope and optimism. Our achievements are well documented and recognized worldwide. This makes us proud and happy. In our endeavour to bring more prosperity, greater wellbeing and a better standard of living to our people, we should never neglect the values that bind us together as a Creole nation. Our moral and spiritual values. The values and traditions we have inherited from our forebears. Values that define us as a nation but which, sadly enough, are in danger of being eroded by the social scourges which continue to afflict us.

It is for this reason that during this International Year of Small Island Developing States, we, as a determined island nation, have to continue to put emphasis on our diverse programs of education, re-education, cultural appreciation, rehabilitation, apprenticeship, etc. These programs should never lose their relevance, their raison d’être. Sustainable development cannot materialize without an ethos of hard work. It cannot happen without national unity and social harmony. Sustainable development thrives on respect -- for oneself and for one’s neighbor -- on responsibility, determination and hard work.

Let us in this Year of Small Island Developing States show to the whole world our mettle and determination. And let us cultivate and reinforce the values that define our small island nation.

In the face of all the challenges, opportunities and choices that the year 2014 will bring, let us make the resolution to live in peace, in harmony and in solidarity. Let us continue to remain steadfast in the building of our New Seychelles.

It gives me great pleasure in wishing all Seychellois, including our compatriots overseas, all residents and all visitors to our country, a Prosperous and Happy New Year 2014!

May God continue to bless our beautiful small country and protect us. Thank you.

 

Posted with Blogsy

Our Perpetual Ocean

This is an animation of ocean surface currents from June 2005 to December 2007 from NASA satellites. Watch how bigger currents like the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean and the Kuroshio in the Pacific carry warm waters across thousands of miles at speeds greater than four miles per hour (six kilometers per hour); how coastal currents like the Agulhas in the Southern Hemisphere move equatorial waters toward Earth's poles; and how thousands of other ocean currents are confined to particular regions and form slow-moving, circular pools called eddies. Credit: NASA/SVS
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The swirling flows of tens of thousands of ocean currents were captured in this scientific visualization created by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

"There is also a 20-minute long tour, which shows these global surface currents in more detail," says Horace Mitchell, the lead of the visualization studio. "We also released a three-minute version on our NASA Visualization Explorer iPad app."

Both the 20-minute and 3-minute versions are available in high definition here: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?3827

The visualization covers the period June 2005 to December 2007 and is based on a synthesis of a numerical model with observational data, created by a NASA project called Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, or ECCO for short. ECCO is a joint project between the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. ECCO uses advanced mathematical tools to combine observations with the MIT numerical ocean model to obtain realistic descriptions of how ocean circulation evolves over time.

These model-data syntheses are among the largest computations of their kind ever undertaken. They are made possible by high-end computing resources provided by NASA's Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif.

ECCO model-data syntheses are being used to quantify the ocean's role in the global carbon cycle, to understand the recent evolution of the polar oceans, to monitor time-evolving heat, water, and chemical exchanges within and between different components of the Earth system, and for many other science applications.

In the particular model-data synthesis used for this visualization, only the larger, ocean basin-wide scales have been adjusted to fit observations. Smaller-scale ocean currents are free to evolve on their own according to the computer model's equations. Due to the limited resolution of this particular model, only the larger eddies are represented, and tend to look more 'perfect' than they are in real life. Despite these model limitations, the visualization offers a realistic study in both the order and the chaos of the circulating waters that populate Earth's ocean.

Data used by the ECCO project include: sea surface height from NASA's Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 satellite altimeters; gravity from the NASA/German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission; surface wind stress from NASA's QuikScat mission; sea surface temperature from the NASA/Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS; sea ice concentration and velocity data from passive microwave radiometers; and temperature and salinity profiles from shipborne casts, moorings and the international Argo ocean observation system. More

 

Science team identifies tipping point in climate change: 2047

If you’ve been wondering when global warming will show up on your doorstep, Camilo Mora has an answer for you.

Dr. Mora, an associate professor at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, leads a team that has tackled the challenging question of when the climate will shift entirely beyond what could be considered natural.

Their result: The turning point arrives in 2047 as a worldwide average if fossil fuel consumption continues unabated; as late as 2069 if carbon emissions are curbed. Broken down by city the numbers are a bit more revealing. In Montreal, for example, the new normal will arrive a year sooner. For Toronto it’s 2049 and for Vancouver not until 2056. But the real spotlight of Dr. Mora’s study is what happens in the tropics, where profound changes could be entrenched within little more than a decade.

“By looking at timing we’ve come up with an entirely new set of implications on climate change,” Dr. Mora said.

Dr. Mora is not a climate scientist but an expert in dealing with huge amounts of data to pull out hidden information – a skill he honed over six years at Dalhousie University in Halifax, working with the likes of the late Ransom Myers. It was Dr. Myers’ number crunching skills that turned the plight of the world’s fish stock into headline news in 2003.

Ten years later, Dr. Mora is following in his mentor’s footsteps with a study that seems certain to grab attention.

“I want to let the numbers do the talking,” he said.

Climate scientists have long expressed high confidence that the planet is warming as a result of the heat trapping action of greenhouse gasses. The latest assessment from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change puts that confidence at 95 per cent. Where scientists have been less confident is on the timing of the change. Different models show the global temperatures rising at different rates and the hundreds of scientists behind the IPCC assessment can’t say which model will turn out to be the best predictor of what actually happens over the course of this century.

Starting with an idea that came out of a course he was teaching last spring, Dr. Mora decided to address the gap with some nuts and bolts analysis.

His team combined data from all 39 currently available global climate models and went back nearly 150 years to see what the range of normal climate variability was over that time period.

“We looked at the minimum and maximum values that occurred in that 150-year window and that’s how we set our bounds of recent historical variability,” said Ryan Longman, a doctoral student who worked on the analysis, published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

Then the team tracked the combined predictions of the models forward at different points on the globe to watch how soon the predictions drifted completely out of their normal range. Once the coldest year at any given location was consistently warmer than the hottest year prior to 2005 the team considered the climate to have changed completely. The dates when this happens are different for different locations and they depend on the emissions scenario.

“I think this analysis is valuable and sheds new light on impacts,” said Jane Lubchenco, the former administrator of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in an e-mail.

Dr. Lubchenco, who was not involved in the study, stepped down earlier this year to return to academic research at Oregon State University. She said “no one has gone to the immense effort they did to really look critically at the data from so many places and over the entire period of time for which records are reliable.”

The key result of the finding, Dr. Mora said, is that tropical locations will leave the range of normal climate variability much sooner because they typically experience a narrow range of temperature and precipitation levels. That’s a worry Dr. Mora said, because species there are not well adapted to living outside those ranges. Similarly, cities and nations found along Earth’s equator are among the poorest and least equipped to deal with the health and environmental burden of climate change.

“Today when people talk about climate change the images that come to mind are melting ice and polar bears,” Dr. Mora said. “People might infer from this that the tropics will be less affected.”

Instead, he said, the new analysis showed that species and ecosystems in the tropics would soon be experiencing “unprecedented climate stress.” The trend also goes for marine ecosystems where the study shows that ocean acidification has already departed from the normal range with a disastrous outlook for coral reefs.

Ken Caldeira, an expert in global ecology at the Carnegie Institution in Stanford added that while the timing and global breakdown from Dr. Mora’s analysis represent solid science, what matters more is the response.

“Whether an ecosystem goes a decade or two earlier or later doesn’t really matter that much,” Dr. Caldeira said. “We must stop using the atmosphere as a waste dump for our greenhouse-gas pollution. Everything else is nuance.” More

 

ECLAC Launches Database on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Zones

2 October 2013: The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) launched an interactive, web-based database aimed at helping Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries in planning coastal management and preventive measures to adapt to the effects of climate change on their coastal zones.

The database was launched on 2 October 2013 during the Tenth Annual Meeting of the Ibero-American Network of Climate Change Offices being held at ECLAC headquarters in Santiago, Chile.

The database was developed as part of a multi-year project, titled 'Effects of Climate Change on the Coast of Latin America and the Caribbean,' which is being implemented by ECLAC in cooperation with Spain's Ministry of Agriculture, Food and the Environment and the University of Cantabria. This project has produced several reports since 2012, examining the vulnerability of the LAC coastline to projected climate change impacts.

The database provides data on LAC coastal dynamics, climate variability, coastal vulnerability and exposure to climate change, current impact and a projection of predictable risks in the future. Outputs of projected impacts are geo-referenced, with details available for blocks of coastline 5 kilometers (km) wide and 30 km long. Among the variables taken into account by the database are annual sea level rise, changes in wave heights, shifts in wind direction, and erosion and changes in sediment dynamics. The database and associated tools are targeted to LAC planners and policymakers with the aim of improving territorial planning in coastal zones and estimated engineering requirements, as well as to put into place appropriate environmental impact procedures. [ECLAC Press Release] [IISD RS Story on ECLAC Report on LAC Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change] [Publication: Database web viewer]

read more: http://larc.iisd.org/news/eclac-launches-database-on-climate-change-adaptation-in-coastal-zones/

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Tool predicts sea-level rise on Pacific islands

HONOLULU (AP) - People concerned about how rising sea levels will affect communities in Hawaii, Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands have a new tool to help them plan ahead.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Hawaii at Manoa worked together to incorporate these Pacific island areas into a national web-mapping tool that enables people to picture what rising sea levels will do to coastal areas.

The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer overlays high-resolution aerial images on top of elevation data.

This allows users to see what higher sea levels would do to landmarks and critical infrastructure. It also shows what populations would be vulnerable to rising sea levels.

University of Hawaii Professor Chip Fletcher says it fills an important gap for Hawaii planners and managers. More

 

Angola: Head of State appoints Ecocide Convention Work Team

The Angolan head of State José Eduardo dos Santos Wednesday in Luanda ordered the setting up of a Work Team to study and draft proposals for incorporation in the country’s legal system of the Ecocide Convention, Angop learned from an official source.

Angolan head of State José Eduardo dos Santos

Ecocide is defined as the destruction or degradation of various ecosystems in a certain territory, through human action or others, putting at stake the full development of the resources by the population.

The United Nations has decided to discuss, approve and promote among the member states an International Convention against the Ecocide, aiming to protect the earth and its living species against the evil and hold legally accountable the institutions, organisms, organisations and their leaders found responsible for the phenomenon.

Internally, the Executive is required to set up national mechanisms of combat against the ecocide, promotion of the enforcement of the law and regulation of the cooperation with the international organisms and organisations involved in the protection of the environment, its technical assistance and exchange of information.

The just appointed Work Team is coordinated by the minister of Environment and includes representatives of the ministries of Energy and Water, Interior, Oil and National Defence.

According to the source, The Work Team is expected to conduct a deep study on the Ecocide Convention draft, by analysing the impact the phenomenon might have on the country’s legal system.

It is also the Work Team’s duty to create a legal framework for the country’s economic development, promote and facilitate international cooperation and provide technical assistance to prevent the ecocide, the source said.

The body is also tasked with arranging and promoting inter-sectoral programmes of information, publicity and social awareness, through environmental education campaigns and identifying and protecting the communities based in threatened areas. More

 

Angola: Head of State appoints Ecocide Convention Work Team

The Angolan head of State José Eduardo dos Santos Wednesday in Luanda ordered the setting up of a Work Team to study and draft proposals for incorporation in the country’s legal system of the Ecocide Convention, Angop learned from an official source.

Angolan head of State José Eduardo dos Santos

Ecocide is defined as the destruction or degradation of various ecosystems in a certain territory, through human action or others, putting at stake the full development of the resources by the population.

The United Nations has decided to discuss, approve and promote among the member states an International Convention against the Ecocide, aiming to protect the earth and its living species against the evil and hold legally accountable the institutions, organisms, organisations and their leaders found responsible for the phenomenon.

Internally, the Executive is required to set up national mechanisms of combat against the ecocide, promotion of the enforcement of the law and regulation of the cooperation with the international organisms and organisations involved in the protection of the environment, its technical assistance and exchange of information.

The just appointed Work Team is coordinated by the minister of Environment and includes representatives of the ministries of Energy and Water, Interior, Oil and National Defence.

According to the source, The Work Team is expected to conduct a deep study on the Ecocide Convention draft, by analysing the impact the phenomenon might have on the country’s legal system.

It is also the Work Team’s duty to create a legal framework for the country’s economic development, promote and facilitate international cooperation and provide technical assistance to prevent the ecocide, the source said.

The body is also tasked with arranging and promoting inter-sectoral programmes of information, publicity and social awareness, through environmental education campaigns and identifying and protecting the communities based in threatened areas. More

 

Climate change mainstreaming guide now available - SPREP

The Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change (PACC) Project has launched a comprehensive practical guide to mainstreaming climate change adaptation in the Pacific. A key output of the project, the guide represents a significant step forward in incorporating climate risks into development planning and practice in the region.

"Climate change actually threatens all aspects of development," says PACC Project Manager, Taito Nakalevu. "That's why we need to take it into account for all policy development, as well as projects on the ground. This mainstreaming guide shows people how to do that."

The guide follows standard project and policy cycles and shows how climate change risks can be incorporated at each step in the process. For example, when analysing a situation ahead of designing a project, climate projections can be included to understand how the future climate might impact the project. Vulnerability assessments can be carried out in light of possible changes in climate, and activities can be oriented towards reducing these vulnerabilities.

The guide includes case studies from the region, many of them drawn from the PACC project itself. PACC has pilot projects in 14 Pacific island countries, demonstrating best practice in three key climate-sensitive areas: food production and food security, coastal zone management, and water resources management.

"The aim is to have climate risks included as a matter of course in all decision making at all levels," explains Taito. "The PACC Project is addressing this from the bottom up, through the demonstration projects, and also from the top down through efforts to mainstream at the highest policy levels. It's a new approach, and we are pleased with the results so far."

The mainstreaming guide is aimed at country practitioners, regional governments and organisations, and development partners. The PACC team hopes to collect experiences and lessons learned over the next few years and use these to review and revise the guide over time.

The Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) is the implementing partner of the PACC project, which is funded by the Global Environment Facility and the Australian Government, with the United Nations Development Programme as the implementing agency. More

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Marshall Islands demand “climate leadership” from Australia

The Marshall Islands’ Vice President Tony de Brum has embarked on a tour of Australia to call for greater political leadership on climate change.

De Brum plans to target government ministers, business and the media in a move to raise awareness of the increasingly tough situation his country faces.

The 34 coral atolls that form the Marshall Islands are no more than two metres above sea level, making them especially vulnerable to rising sea levels and extreme weather events.

In June unusually high tides swamped the capital Majuro, closing the airport and destroying many homes.

Islands in the north have been suffering from severe drought since the start of 2013, with many households down to one litre a day.

“Australia has always been a big brother down south to us, even though we are up north. We think that anything that the Pacific Islands do in terms of climate change must have the blessing, the support and the voice of Australia and New Zealand to the outside world,” De Brum told ABC News.

Australia was recently elected onto the UN Security Council, and De Brum says it’s vital it uses its new influence to drive new ambition into efforts to cut global emissions, which are blamed for global warming.

“You [Australia] have circles of diplomatic friends far wider and much more powerful than each of us, or even of the small island states of the Pacific put together,” he said.

“Those important connections must be used to draw attention to the fact that climate change is now, it needs the attention of the world now, and the sacrifice of the large developed countries must be part of that solution.”

Sensitive issue

With elections looming, climate change is a politically toxic issue in Australia, which boasts the highest per capita emissions in the developed world, and is a leading coal exporter.

Opposition leader Tony Abbott is a regular critic of government efforts to cut emissions, branding emission trading a “so-called market” that deals in an “invisible substance”.

Current Prime Minister Kevin Rudd recently announced he would phase out a carbon tax that proved unpopular with heavy emitters, replacing it with a trading scheme in 2014.

The Marshall Islands will host a Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ meeting in early September, which will be attended by representatives from China, the EU, India, Japan and Canada.

De Brum also told ABC he hopes US Secretary of State John Kerry will be able to make the meeting, which he hopes will end with a ‘Majuro Declaration’ for Climate Leadership to galvanize more ‘urgent and concrete’ action.

“I have no doubts that United Sates will see the absolute value of having Mr Kerry attend and that he will, in fact, attend. It is important to remember that in the last Forum in the Cook Islands, Mrs Clinton attended as US Secretary of State. More

 

CCCCC launches online Climate Risk Management Tool for the Caribbean

12 July 2013: The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) launched an online tool for assisting Caribbean decision makers in assessing climate risks as part of their efforts to build climate resilience into their development policies, plans, programmes and projects.

The Caribbean Climate Online Risk and Adaptation Tool (CCORAL) outlines a step-by-step process to identify if an activity, such as a project, programme, strategy, plan, policy or legislation, is influenced by, or vulnerable to, climate change. CCORAL then creates pathways for the identification and implementation of adaptation and mitigation options.

CCORAL provides information both at the regional and country level. However, only the CARICOM countries can currently be selected individually when using CCORAL, although CCCCC emphasizes that it is possible to expand the tool to cover non-CARICOM Caribbean countries such as Cuba and the Dominican Republic.

CCORAL was developed by the CCCCC and Acclimatise with support from the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the Caribbean Climate Risk Management Project. It was constructed using inputs from Government ministries from four pilot countries, namely Barbados, Belize, Jamaica and Suriname, and consultations with civil society, business and financial services sectors, research institutions, university experts and development partners. The launch event was held on 12 July 2013, in Saint Lucia, presided over by Prime Minister Kenny Anthony. [CCCCC Press Release] [CCORAL Webpage]

read more: http://sids-l.iisd.org/news/ccccc-launches-online-climate-risk-management-tool-for-the-caribbean/

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The Impending Deluge

Fifty thousand drowned, steamships aground with their bows among trees, cattle rolled head over heels by gigantic waves — stories of great sea surges from past centuries abound. Many of them cascaded ashore when coastlines were relatively stable, killing everyone in their path. Today, we live in a warming world of rising sea levels, where tens of millions of us live a few meters above the ocean. The potential for sudden cataclysm is greater than ever.

The record of history is sobering. On Jan. 16, 1362, a severe southwesterly storm swept across the British Isles. The wooden spire of Norwich cathedral in eastern England collapsed.

Hours later, the Grote Mandrenke, “The Great Killing of Men,” descended on the Low Countries at high tide. Huge waves carried everything before them. “An infinity of people perished,” fishing fleets became matchwood, entire herds of cattle and sheep perished in the raging waters. Three centuries later, in 1634, another cataclysmic storm surge brought sea levels four meters above normal to the Strand Islands off northern Germany. As many as 15,000 people and 50,000 livestock drowned.

These were but two of the savage attacks on the low-lying coasts of the North Sea, this from a patch of ocean that was largely dry land less than 8,000 years ago. The geologists call it Doggerland, a sunken landscape that once formed the North Sea. It was a land of sluggish rivers, lakes and extensive wetlands. A few thousand hunters thrived there, living off fish and small game, using antler-tipped spears.

We know this because a trawler dredged one from the seabed in 1932. Doggerland slowly vanished in the face of sea level rise caused by thawing ice sheets, an ever-changing world for those who lived there. By 5,500 B.C., Doggerland had disappeared under the chilly waters of the North Sea.

The inhabitants of the Low Countries have been battling the ocean ever since. For over a thousand years, they have tried to wall off the ocean. Today, millions of people live in densely occupied coastal landscapes behind great barriers. The Dutch government’s hideously expensive Delta Works was the culmination of centuries of defense work, but the authorities never relax in the face of a warming future with predictions of more extreme weather events. They are planning for at least 10,000-year storms in a world of rising sea levels.

It’s hard for us to imagine what the world was like at the end of the Ice Age, when sea levels were about 220 meters lower and the North Sea was dry land.

Take the Nile, which flowed into the Mediterranean through narrow gorges. As the ocean rose, the now silt-heavy Nile formed a fertile delta that became the granary of the pharaohs. All was well two thousand years ago, when Alexandria had only 300,000 inhabitants. Today, the Aswan Dam far upstream has drastically reduced silt flow. Nearly 10 million people live in Alexandria and Cairo. The delta is slowly vanishing under rising sea levels, its groundwater contaminated by saltwater, the soils depleted. The delta is no longer a balanced system. Perhaps 7 million people will suffer regularly from starvation by 2100.

The world’s sea levels have risen since the 1860s, with no end in sight. Skeptics argue that this is a long-term problem, measured in centuries rather than generations, that there is plenty of time to adapt to changing shorelines. But they forget about the more frequent extreme-weather events with their sea surges predicted for the future.

Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Superstorm Sandy in 2012 were both wake-up calls for Americans living near sea level. Katrina devastated New Orleans, leaving 80 percent of the city underwater. Levees broke, over 1,500 people died, and thousands were stranded, especially poorer people. Sandy’s surge flooded Lower Manhattan and the New Jersey Shore. Subways flooded, thousands of houses became rubble. With $60 billion of damage, recovery will take years, while a debate over long-term solutions sputters along. Does one wall off New York, force people to build on higher ground, or restore protective mangrove swamps? The answers will be long in coming, but meanwhile, as cities like Miami grow, our vulnerability increases every year.

The threat is even more ominous elsewhere. Today, some 200 million people live within five meters of sea level, many of them in megacities like Shanghai. The Netherlands has the resources to wall off the sea, but what about other parts of the world? Small Pacific islands like Tuvalu, Alaska’s barrier island communities, and the Maldives in the Indian Ocean are seriously endangered and may even cease to exist.

Bangladesh, most of which is river delta country, lies at the head of the Bay of Bengal, where intense cyclones and their fast-moving storm surges have the potential to kill thousands. And kill they do, in a country with an exploding population, chronic poverty and a long coastline. Cyclone Bhola in 1970 killed over half a million people, at a time when the population was much smaller than today. To its credit, the government has developed early warning systems, erected refuge buildings, and created evacuation strategies that have saved many lives. But these do not answer the longer-term problem of fast-growing urban populations, threats to rice crops, seawater contaminated groundwater, and nowhere to move millions of people forced from their homes by rising seas. More

 

Protecting Coastal Cities From Rising Seas

Vanishing coastlines are a major test for government action. For many cities, especially those in nations that have made incremental progress on national climate change policy, and even those like Venice that have grappled with a rise in water levels for decades, the time to act is now.

Mumbai

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected in 2007 that global sea levels would rise between 8 inches and 2 feet over the next century. But thanks to persistently high air and sea temperatures over the past six years, glaciers are melting, polar ice caps are shrinking, and ice is being lost from the continental sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica at a faster rate than anticipated. Combining these new developments with the expected thermal expansion, scientists writing for Environmental Research Lettersanticipate that global sea levels will rise between 12 inches and 3 feet over the next century—a 60 percent increase over the IPCC model.

That means the coastlines around more than two-thirds of the world’s largest megacities and the sprawl that surrounds them are disappearing much faster than predicted. With millions of urbanites’ security at risk, the consequences of not taking preventive measures go far beyond a sinking Piazza San Marco. Warmer, higher oceans dramatically increase the risk of frequent extreme weather events, damaging floods, and storm surges. Recent storms likeHurricane Sandy on America’s East Coast, with damages totaling over $50 billion for the entire region, and the 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, with a death toll that climbed to nearly 140,000 lives, demonstrate the varied and damaging repercussions of sea-level rise all too clearly. Residences, transportation infrastructure, schools, hospitals, industry, and commercial areas, among other valuable urban assets, will face billions of dollars in climate-related damages over the coming decades.

CITIES AT ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL RISK

From Ephesus, Turkey, to Mumbai, India, urban settlements along the sea have been important concentrations of cultural, economic, and population growth for millennia. Today, some of the world’s largest megacities and suburbs, with growing populations of more than 10 million, are also those most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Over the next half century, urban coastal communities around the world will face a new reality of dangerously amplified security risks, loss of life, and economic destruction from climate-change-induced flooding and storm surges.

Kolkata, India, for instance, is expected to contain more than 14 million people in locations vulnerable to rising sea levels and increased flooding by 2070, a sevenfold increase over its exposed population of 1.9 million today. Sea-level rise will jeopardize not only the homes and livelihoods of those 14 million people but also—and perhaps most importantly—their basic safety.

But Kolkata is not the exception—it’s the norm. Most of the top ten port cities with the largest number of people exposed to coastal flooding are growing and industrializing Asian cities (see table 1). Collectively, they are home to a total of nearly 66.4 million people and have combined future exposed assets of more than $19 trillion (see table 2). More

"We are engaged in an unprecedented experiment." Scientist Michael Mann on 400ppm

"We are engaged in an unprecedented experiment." Scientist Michael Mann on 400ppm

Seychelles shares experiences at World Economic Forum and engages in further discussions on Madagascar process

Leading Seychelles' delegation to the World Economic Forum, Foreign Minister Jean-Paul Adam, has highlighted a number of Seychelles' experiences as a basis for sustainable development at the event being held in Cape Town under the patronage of President Jacob Zuma of South Africa.

Minister Adam, and the Minister for Finance, Trade and Investment, Pierre Laporte, are representing Seychelles President Michel at the event which is being attended by a number of heads of state from Africa and around the world.

The forum traditionally provides a platform for innovative ideas to be shared among world leaders with a view to improving the state of the world economy and with a view to improving the global framework for development.

President Zuma opened the forum by noting that having the forum in Africa, was the “the right place, and the right time.”

Minister Pierre Laporte, the Minister for Finance, Trade and Investment, has taken the opportunity of the forum of leaders to illustrate the bold moves that Seychelles has taken, and is continuing to make, to make Seychelles more competitive and also to ensure that economic progress is sustainable.

In sessions on green growth, the Seychelles delegation has emphasized that investment in renewable energy in Africa is essential for its development. In the context of Seychelles, the purchase of fossil fuels are the biggest drain on foreign exchange in the country, and renewable energy allows Seychelles to further maximize the impact of foreign exchange earnings from the pillars of the economy - tourism, fisheries, and financial services.

Seychelles has also called for innovations in policies and the international framework to foster green growth. The initiative of Seychelles within the Global Island Partnership (GLISPA) to propose debt reduction through debt for adaptation swaps has been tabled in the forum as an innovative mechanism that can transform the development options of islands, but which can also eventually be very relevant for all countries with significant debt in the African region.

Within the context of innovative mechanisms, the Seychelles delegation has also spoken of its experiences in securing grant components as part of major infrastructure projects on a public private partnership basis (PPP) that would not otherwise get off the ground - the example of the Undersea fiber-optic cable was cited.

Seychelles has also insisted on the importance of “the blue economy” for sustainable development, and that more attention needs to be given to the development of oceanic resources and management of these resources. Within this context, Minister Adam remarked that more African ownership was required of the oceanic space: “We need to be more engaged with our seas. We need to have better laws governing oceanic management. And we need more African-owned companies involved in oceanic development - whether it is fisheries, maritime trade, or tapping into resources on the ocean floor."

Governance also featured prominently in the discussions of the WEF as a key element of sustained economic development. Notably the Mo Ibrahim Index on Governance has hailed Seychelles’ strong record on governance in the continent.

“We must all start by recognizing that there are many areas that we must improve. And we must also recognize that good governance reforms have no end date, as we should always be seeking ways to better engage with our citizens. This is the core of our governance compact in Seychelles - to put the citizen at the center of development," Minister Adam has stated.

In terms of gender equality, the need to ensure that women are not marginalized in political and economic decision making has been highlighted as a cross-cutting issue across themes, and Seychelles experiences also provided a positive reference point.

In the margins of the forum, Minister Adam has also engaged in discussions with the SADC leadership with a view to ensuring that the elections planned for Madagascar go ahead as smoothly as possible. Seychelles has stated its regret at the decision of the President of the Transition to renege on his previous commitment not to stand in forthcoming elections, however, the Seychelles delegation has stressed that the most important element remained to ensure free, fair, and credible elections were held in Madagascar.

PHOTO: Minister Adam with former President of Mozambique, Joaquim Chissano, SADC mediator on the Madagascar crisis / Photo from Seychelles Ministry of Tourism and Culture

 

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